Melbourne house prices tipped to rise 14pc | KPMG

As Melbourne’s property market enters a new growth phase, fresh modelling points to renewed momentum across the city. Forecasts from KPMG indicate a strong outlook for house prices over the next two years, despite a shift in how investors are participating in the market.

Melbourne’s median house price is expected to rise by a combined 14.1 per cent by the end of 2027, equating to an estimated increase of around $150,000. Unit values are also projected to climb, reflecting steady demand and Melbourne’s relatively lower price base compared with other capital cities.

While investor activity has become less visible at auctions and public listings, the market remains resilient. Changes to Victoria’s land tax settings have reshaped investor behaviour rather than weakening conditions. Many transactions are now taking place off-market, contributing to tighter supply and slower turnover.

At the same time, first-home buyer support and demand-side policies continue to underpin activity, particularly at the lower end of the market. Buyers are increasingly holding onto existing properties, further constraining listings.

Together, these dynamics suggest Melbourne is well-positioned for continued, measured growth.

“A quieter market does not mean a weaker one—it signals a shift toward more strategic, long-term investment.”

Published: January 30, 2026